According to foreign media on October 30th, the World Bank in its latest “Commodity Market Outlook” report highlighted that, due to abundant supply, increased inventory, and sluggish demand, copper prices dropped by 1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2023.
The demand in the real estate sector fell short of expectations, and the deteriorating demand from other major economies was partially offset by the demand for copper from clean technologies (including electric vehicles, wind energy, and solar power generation equipment) and infrastructure projects (like the construction of charging facilities for electric vehicles).
In terms of supply, the production disruptions in Chile, China, and Indonesia supported the prices in the first half of the year.
It is projected that prices will decline by another 5% in 2024, reflecting global demand softening and robust growth in supply.
Owing to new projects and expansions in several countries, including Chile, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Peru, Russia, and Uzbekistan, copper output will witness a robust increase in the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024.
With the revival of global demand and intensified green transition, prices are anticipated to bounce back by 9% in 2025.
In the coming years, the main drivers of demand will stem from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and related grid infrastructure, necessitating additional investments in copper mining and refining capacities.
Geographical concentration of production and refining, decline in ore grade, cumbersome new mine licensing processes, and inflation in capital costs are all set to pose upward risks to copper prices in the medium term.
[Source – 上海有色网] 世界银行：2024年铜价将进一步下跌 2025年料反弹 https://news.smm.cn/news/102445470
